Since 2004, the H&K Election Predictor has popularized amateur punditry, engaged thousands, and brought polling results to life.
H&K’s Election Predictor uses a mathematical formula based on the concept of proportional shift to generate seat predictions.
Proportional shift takes the parties’ percentages of popular vote in the last election and shifts those percentages proportionally based on inputted polling data to generate new seat counts. The parties’ percentages of popular vote are compared to the results of the last election and the differences are allocated proportionally on a riding by riding basis.
For example, if a party’s popular vote across the country increases from 20% to 22% there will be a proportional increase of 10% in each riding for that party. Combining the shifts for all parties may result in a different party winning that seat.
Of course, no seat calculator will ever give a 100% accurate prediction. H&K’s Election Predictor is intended as a fun and informative tool to graphically view the impact of an election prediction and to bring public polling data to life.
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